Dan P
Everything you ever wanted to know about Josh Smith and NBA economics.
Headache—1.
A pain located in the head; 2. An annoying or bothersome person…
Can you name the most
talked-about player in recent NBA
trade circles? If you said Atlanta Hawks forward, Josh Smith, you’d be correct! I
put a definition just above this portion that best sums up what I think of Josh
Smith--a headache. Now to be clear, not all headaches are bad. He
is such a unique player; he’s often a headache
for the opposition to figure out how to play against him.
Smith also has the
nasty habit of forgetting what makes him an unconventional commodity in the NBA
and, therefore, marketable. First, let’s get one thing straight. Unlike other North American sports’, the NBA
is solely dependent, financially on the quality of its stars. Win-Loss records
in the NBA sell tickets, but star
players buys fans for an owner (“Puts
asses in the seats,” yells out the typical UFC fan—Ed). A team’s
popularity can ebb and flow during eras of feast or famine and transcendent stars
like LeBron James really do only
happen every so often.
Once you peel back the
layers of the NBA hierarchy, it becomes very difficult to differentiate the
levels of talent amongst the league's 1A and 1B class of players. I find
this is where a high percentage of the league's bad, lucrative contracts are
inked. They aren't quite stars that can
lead a franchise, but definitely above “role player status.”
Under the new CBA (collective bargaining agreement),
a max-level player is eligible for a $100 million dollar contract over 5 years,
where the fifth year is only attainable if the player is re-signing with his
original team. Without going through the names, there are only about 12
players in the NBA, in most given years that are worthy of this max contract
for what they mean to a franchise’s success. So this means, in simple
math, that there are more teams in the NBA that would have the money for a “max
guy,” but there are too few players of this caliber to go around. Take
also into consideration the assemblies of “Big 3's” and that uber-talent
pool is being dispersed less. This often leads to over-payment of
dwindling returns and, for many teams, it’s a catch-22. In
order for small markets to bring players to their cities, they have to overpay
their worth without really achieving long-term success. Now it's ok to do this
occasionally, but when a team has to field rosters in this manor to be
relevant, then problems occur.
So what is a fair
value for someone like Josh Smith? If I’m applying for a GM position with a team and the owner
informed me that Smith is our best player on the roster and there was little
wiggle room to make significant changes over the next few years, I would find
the nearest window and fling myself from it. But if Smith was the third
best player on the team, even with cap constraints, I think we would be able to
work something out.
His pedigree of being
a tremendous athlete who plays both ends of the floor, combining speed and size,
is a huge asset. While not a great spot up shooter or shot creator, he
always manages to find clever ways to get easier baskets, despite only playing
with average point guards in his career such as Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich,
and NBA relic, Mike Bibby a few
years back. Finding a point guard who can run a true pick and roll with
Smith should boost his FG% to that of elite around 50% (Smith is a career
46%FG). Such destinations that have been rumored are the
San Antonio Spurs
Los Angeles Lakers
Brooklyn Nets
(And most recently,
the Philadelphia
76ers—Ed)
The first three teams
mentioned would be prime candidates as they possess point guards who excel in
pick and roll scenarios (Steve Nash/Deron Williams/Tony Parker). Even more coincidental is the fact
that all three of those teams are slightly older in age and all sport a very
solid center (Dwight Howard/Tim Duncan/Brook Lopez).
…Side Note: Yes, for
argument’s sake, Tim Duncan has
played center for the Spurs this year…
This is a really nice
setup for Smith who can be free to roam the weak side of the court and respond
to threats down low by blocking the shooter from behind or oblique angles. Not
to mention an infusion of youth to the Lakers or Spurs would be a very welcome
addition to those franchises allowing them to compete with the younger teams in
the playoffs (i.e. Oklahoma City Thunder).
But the cost for Smith
may be too high to take on long-term. He
currently makes over $13 million dollars in salary and at age 27, is just
starting to enter his physical prime. It would be hard to imagine any
team being able to convince him to stay after a trade from the Hawks for
anything less than $18 million per year, which is just so close to the max as
it is, that I would be hard-pressed not to say that more than one team will
offer him the max. It's just the nature of inflation in the NBA.
Perhaps $20 million for Josh Smith is fair, so let’s make this
hypothetical: what is LeBron James really worth to the league and the Miami Heat in salary per year?
Without being able to recall the source, I have heard LeBron, between
tickets, merchandise, and marketing, is probably worth between $35 million and $50
million in payroll dollars to a franchise per year simply because of the high
potential revenue streams that he provides. But under the CBA rules, LeBron
can only earn a max, $20 million per year (he actually makes less since he took
less money to join the Heat, a fact most people do not credit him with).
So by capping what the top players in the NBA can earn, naturally lesser
players will come within the max number by virtue of demand (NBA teams) being
higher than supply (true NBA stars).
Potential Spurs-Hawks Trade
Spurs receive: Josh
Smith and Anthony Morrow
Hawks Receive: Tiago Splitter/DeJuan Blair/Nando de Colo/Stephen Jackson plus a first round pick
and $3 million in cash.
It's not the sexy big
name trade that someone like a Josh Smith would bring back in return, but in
this deal the Hawks get two young bigs, a young, cheap point guard, and a large
expiring contract in Jackson at about $10 million dollars. Looking at the
roster, it’s easy to spot the number of players on the Hawks’ roster set to
expire. Take out Smith and Morrow for the trade and between Jackson (from
the Spurs), Devin Harris, Zaza Pachulia, Kyle Korver, Johan Petro,Ivan Johnson, and Anthony Tolliver you can see they would have roughly $36 million coming
off the books for 2014, while holding a starting core of Teague, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, and Splitter. Being in the Eastern Conference, where competition isn't the best, and the
amount of money to play with for the upcoming free agent classes, the Hawks can
set themselves up for a relatively, short rebuilding phase.
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